The big voting day marathon thread thingy, part II
The bad thing about writing forecast is, that, in the case you were absolutely wrong, it’s still there for everyone to see. Luckily, I used words like “maybe”, “could” and “might”, so it’s not a complete disaster, but I think I should think twice before trying to become a world-famous fortune teller…
First, the facts. The current result looks like this:
Social democrats 48,9% (+2%),
Conservatives 18,8% (+2,4%),
Freedom party 14,9% (-5,2%),
Green party 14,7% (+2,3%),
Communist party 1,5% (+0,9%),
League for the future of Austria 1,2% (+1,2%)
So, what do we have here? This day’s miracle was presented by the freedom party, who only lost 5% of their votes, and not the predicted 10-15%. This can be attributed to their very aggressive ad campaigns in the last weeks, which employed very basic racial and social stereotypes - immigrants, Turkey’s accession talks with the EU, and so on, and they also managed to mobilize the nationalist views that almost 15% of the Viennese population seem to have.
The green party managed to keep Neubau, but failed to gain other districts, and gained less votes than expected. The conservatives established themselves pretty well at the second place, and the social democrats just missed an absolute majority, but keep their majority in the city council (55 of 100 seats) due to our weighted allocation system.
It’s still two hours before the first “Wählerstromanalysen” (Which party lost/gained their voters from which other parties?) come in, but I doubt we’ll see any big surprises there - the only thing of real interest will be how many non-voters could be mobilized this time.
In the “It’s funny. Laugh.” department, the Communist party was able to get more votes that the BZÖ, which is kind of cute.
So, in two hours, you’ll read from me again, afterwards I’ll decide wether to visit the Green voting party or just open a bottle of whisky and stay home.
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> 15% of the Viennese population
Taking into account that a lot of people didn’t vote, then it’s only 6% of the population who were appealed by the FP
Thanks for continuing to interpret the election. This American politiphile apreciates it, greatly.
Hey Philipp, thanks for your comments.
As relatively new in Wien I was not understanding why “Der Standard” was claiming as “sensational” the result of FP